0:00:00 - 0:00:19 I want to talk about first world standard of living. Um I was, I was, you know, I have a lot of people living in my house. It seems like to me who pays the bills and, uh, we always have things breaking. I was talking to my wife. I was like, you know, I think the washer is gonna be the next one that breaks 0:00:19 - 0:00:43 . And so I've been preemptively trying to, uh think about that a little bit and keep my eyes out for sales. And it's a funny thing to buy appliances before you need one because, you know, they have ridiculous sales at certain times of the year. This being one of them, I'm recording this on November 10th 0:00:43 - 0:01:07 . I don't know when the video will come out. But, um I had the same feeling I had right before COVID. I was, I was um in a place where I was actually eating a lot of fast food because of my, well, not because of it, it ended up being a choice that had to do with my work situation and I was, I was enjoying 0:01:07 - 0:01:24 the dollar menu and I was at the drive through one day and I knew that this wasn't gonna continue that things were about to change. And then of course COVID and the lockdowns happened, but it was a, it was an odd feeling to be in a certain sway of life and know you won't be coming back this way again 0:01:24 - 0:01:45 when something is sort of habitual. And my waistline has thanked me for that change. However, um, it's an interesting thing to look at things like washers and dryers and realize that this is not some permanent staple in life and it might be a shock to hear. But I guarantee you that if you're alive today 0:01:44 - 0:02:08 and you live for long enough, you're going to see a time where you don't have a washer and dryer anymore. Crazy. Huh? It's a crazy thought. But, you know, let's suppose they cost $5000 instead of, I think they're about $1000. Now, if you get a really inexpensive one new, um, but let's say there were 0:02:08 - 0:02:30 $5000 let's say you have to replace your fridge and it cost 10 grand in today's dollars. Could you afford to do it? I don't think you could unless you're, you have a lot of money and most people don't. So the theme of this video is that the lifestyle that Americans and other first world nations take 0:02:29 - 0:02:54 for granted. It's coming to an end, it's coming to an end and people are not going to be able to afford the lifestyle that they have taken for granted for generations. So you're going to see sudden and surprising tectonic shifts to the the cost and affordability of staples, things that you consider to 0:02:54 - 0:03:15 be an integral part of modern life. Um And this like many other of these things we've talked about is going to be a gradient with impulses. It's gonna be a ramp with cliffs, ramp with clips. Sometimes there will be what seems like some relenting in the price. So there will be a big old upswing and then 0:03:15 - 0:03:35 it will back off a little bit. But the the overall trend is going to be more cost for less benefit, more cost for less benefit. You're gonna see that everywhere in society, everywhere, not just things that cost money, human relationships, you're going to see more cost for less benefit. I promise you 0:03:34 - 0:03:51 , it seems like a shocker but you know, when it all happens, you're gonna look back and you're gonna see the writing on the wall along the way, but you didn't see it at the time. So you're gonna see this pattern with food. You, if you haven't already, you're going to come to the point where you choose 0:03:51 - 0:04:13 not to buy certain things because it's not worth it anymore because the price is so high or the package is so small or the ingredients have changed so much. You're gonna see this in housing, you're gonna see the American dream. If you haven't seen this already. It's going to disappear right in front 0:04:13 - 0:04:36 of you. You're going to see that it's not possible for normal people to afford normal housing. What are some examples of sudden cliffs in that gradient, sudden cliffs in that ramp, sudden impulses on the gradient? What if, for example, I mentioned, what if the cost of, of your refrigerator doubles the 0:04:36 - 0:04:58 next time you have to replace it or triples or quadruples or multiplies? Tenfold. What if you need to charge your ac system or something breaks where you have to get it replaced and the cost to do so is 10 times more than what you expected. What if it's just double what you expected? What if you can't 0:04:57 - 0:05:20 get the parts? They don't exist? What if the guy comes out and says, yeah, a part broke on your system, but we actually, we can't install those parts or get them anymore. We have to install a whole new system and that's going to cost 10 times more than what you thought you were going to pay. What about 0:05:19 - 0:05:40 cars? Everyone takes transportation for granted. You just jump in your car to go, have some fun somewhere. You jump in your car to go buy groceries that someone else grew and someone else prepared. If sudden increases come to the cost of transport, if they're high enough, they will suddenly change your 0:05:40 - 0:06:00 behavior. Or even if they happen slowly over time, you will reach a point where you make the change and you say we just can't do this anymore. So suppose, suppose you're a family that takes vacations regularly, like, let's say, every year you go on a family trip somewhere. Um, not even expensive vacations 0:05:59 - 0:06:20 , maybe. Like you drive to go see your family in some other state, you go to see your folks once a year or whatever. What if it costs multiple times what it does today? What if these changes are so dramatic that you can't justify your 45 minute commute to work anymore? What if you spend so much money 0:06:19 - 0:06:39 on fuel? That it doesn't make sense for you to have that job? That would be a crazy thing, wouldn't it? But situations like this are going to happen, you know, you're gonna have situations where people get a job at the corner store at a gas station that's within walking distance because it costs so much 0:06:39 - 0:06:56 money to drive to a place that pays more that it doesn't make any sense. And what's that going to do for all the places that now, I mean, they're already struggling to get employees, they're gonna close left and right. And now what happens? You know, it's one thing if that's a fast food joint and now 0:06:56 - 0:07:15 that shuts down, it's like, well, ok, everyone's gonna be a little healthier, great. But what if it's the place that manufactures flooring for all parts of the United States of a certain type of flooring and workers can't afford to go there anymore for work. The only thing they'll be able to do is increase 0:07:14 - 0:07:37 pay and then that has to get transferred to the consumer. And that means that far fewer consumers can afford the product. And certain, in fact, many products, many products have a threshold of volume that they have to stay above to be profitable. Meaning you're not gonna have a whole flooring factory 0:07:37 - 0:00:00 just to continue this example, if you're only cranking out a couple of cartons a week, you can't make that work, it can't be profitable. And so if you have reduced production because there's reduced demand because fewer people can afford it. You have to go out of business and then what do people do? 0:00:00 - 0:08:20 So you see the offerings and the supply reduce and you're going to see that across the board, you're gonna see grocery stores that have a whole aisle of a certain product. All of a sudden have two versions of it or slowly have two versions of it. And what used to take four aisles will now take one aisle 0:08:20 - 0:08:38 when you go to a store that has clothing and it used to be chock full of clothes. And then there was like a huge pile of clothes on. Clearance can be fewer clothes on clearance and much more space between the products because they can't fill the whole store. And when they build new stores, if they build 0:08:38 - 0:09:06 new stores, they're gonna be smaller or they'll shrink the store and remodel it and rent out the other side because they can't fill the floor space. So um yeah, what happens? This is the topic of another video, but I don't think I specifically mentioned this one. What happens when they create ways of 0:09:05 - 0:09:32 unequally increasing the cost of travel. And in that video, I know I talked about electric cars versus uh internal combustion combustion cars. However, what about things like if they applied the crazy way they do property taxes to travel. So people who have more pay more, they kind of already do because 0:09:31 - 0:09:53 you have to have more money to have a gas guzzler or have way less money and you have an older vehicle, a really old vehicle, Chuck's Gas because there's a fuel tax per, per gallon right now. But what if, what if they do something where they have grad like your electric utility probably does where they 0:09:52 - 0:10:11 have multiple rates, depending on how much you consume and the highest consumers pay more per unit than the lower consumers. So right now the tax is a fuel tax. It's per gallon. But what if they had something where they were measuring it by mile you drive and the first five miles you drive is a really 0:10:11 - 0:10:34 low rate or free and if you drive a lot of miles, you pay a really high rate. So it's this graduated rate or what if they charge you based on your income, not on how much you drive. And so now there's even more incentive for people to make less money. So these are all examples and we could go on for 0:10:34 - 0:10:55 a very long time. But let's make this a shorter video of how the lifestyle that you take for granted as, as a person in a wealthy nation, it's ending and you will see it decay before your eyes. And how is that going to change things? Well, we talk about that a lot in other videos, like having multiple 0:00:00 - 0:00:19 I want to talk about first world standard of living. Um I was, I was, you know, I have a lot of people living in my house. It seems like to me who pays the bills and, uh, we always have things breaking. I was talking to my wife. I was like, you know, I think the washer is gonna be the next one that breaks 0:00:19 - 0:00:43 . And so I've been preemptively trying to, uh think about that a little bit and keep my eyes out for sales. And it's a funny thing to buy appliances before you need one because, you know, they have ridiculous sales at certain times of the year. This being one of them, I'm recording this on November 10th 0:00:43 - 0:01:07 . I don't know when the video will come out. But, um I had the same feeling I had right before COVID. I was, I was um in a place where I was actually eating a lot of fast food because of my, well, not because of it, it ended up being a choice that had to do with my work situation and I was, I was enjoying 0:01:07 - 0:01:24 the dollar menu and I was at the drive through one day and I knew that this wasn't gonna continue that things were about to change. And then of course COVID and the lockdowns happened, but it was a, it was an odd feeling to be in a certain sway of life and know you won't be coming back this way again 0:01:24 - 0:01:45 when something is sort of habitual. And my waistline has thanked me for that change. However, um, it's an interesting thing to look at things like washers and dryers and realize that this is not some permanent staple in life and it might be a shock to hear. But I guarantee you that if you're alive today 0:01:44 - 0:02:08 and you live for long enough, you're going to see a time where you don't have a washer and dryer anymore. Crazy. Huh? It's a crazy thought. But, you know, let's suppose they cost $5000 instead of, I think they're about $1000. Now, if you get a really inexpensive one new, um, but let's say there were 0:02:08 - 0:02:30 $5000 let's say you have to replace your fridge and it cost 10 grand in today's dollars. Could you afford to do it? I don't think you could unless you're, you have a lot of money and most people don't. So the theme of this video is that the lifestyle that Americans and other first world nations take 0:02:29 - 0:02:54 for granted. It's coming to an end, it's coming to an end and people are not going to be able to afford the lifestyle that they have taken for granted for generations. So you're going to see sudden and surprising tectonic shifts to the the cost and affordability of staples, things that you consider to 0:02:54 - 0:03:15 be an integral part of modern life. Um And this like many other of these things we've talked about is going to be a gradient with impulses. It's gonna be a ramp with cliffs, ramp with clips. Sometimes there will be what seems like some relenting in the price. So there will be a big old upswing and then 0:03:15 - 0:03:35 it will back off a little bit. But the the overall trend is going to be more cost for less benefit, more cost for less benefit. You're gonna see that everywhere in society, everywhere, not just things that cost money, human relationships, you're going to see more cost for less benefit. I promise you 0:03:34 - 0:03:51 , it seems like a shocker but you know, when it all happens, you're gonna look back and you're gonna see the writing on the wall along the way, but you didn't see it at the time. So you're gonna see this pattern with food. You, if you haven't already, you're going to come to the point where you choose 0:03:51 - 0:04:13 not to buy certain things because it's not worth it anymore because the price is so high or the package is so small or the ingredients have changed so much. You're gonna see this in housing, you're gonna see the American dream. If you haven't seen this already. It's going to disappear right in front 0:04:13 - 0:04:36 of you. You're going to see that it's not possible for normal people to afford normal housing. What are some examples of sudden cliffs in that gradient, sudden cliffs in that ramp, sudden impulses on the gradient? What if, for example, I mentioned, what if the cost of, of your refrigerator doubles the 0:04:36 - 0:04:58 next time you have to replace it or triples or quadruples or multiplies? Tenfold. What if you need to charge your ac system or something breaks where you have to get it replaced and the cost to do so is 10 times more than what you expected. What if it's just double what you expected? What if you can't 0:04:57 - 0:05:20 get the parts? They don't exist? What if the guy comes out and says, yeah, a part broke on your system, but we actually, we can't install those parts or get them anymore. We have to install a whole new system and that's going to cost 10 times more than what you thought you were going to pay. What about 0:05:19 - 0:05:40 cars? Everyone takes transportation for granted. You just jump in your car to go, have some fun somewhere. You jump in your car to go buy groceries that someone else grew and someone else prepared. If sudden increases come to the cost of transport, if they're high enough, they will suddenly change your 0:05:40 - 0:06:00 behavior. Or even if they happen slowly over time, you will reach a point where you make the change and you say we just can't do this anymore. So suppose, suppose you're a family that takes vacations regularly, like, let's say, every year you go on a family trip somewhere. Um, not even expensive vacations 0:05:59 - 0:06:20 , maybe. Like you drive to go see your family in some other state, you go to see your folks once a year or whatever. What if it costs multiple times what it does today? What if these changes are so dramatic that you can't justify your 45 minute commute to work anymore? What if you spend so much money 0:06:19 - 0:06:39 on fuel? That it doesn't make sense for you to have that job? That would be a crazy thing, wouldn't it? But situations like this are going to happen, you know, you're gonna have situations where people get a job at the corner store at a gas station that's within walking distance because it costs so much 0:06:39 - 0:06:56 money to drive to a place that pays more that it doesn't make any sense. And what's that going to do for all the places that now, I mean, they're already struggling to get employees, they're gonna close left and right. And now what happens? You know, it's one thing if that's a fast food joint and now 0:06:56 - 0:07:15 that shuts down, it's like, well, ok, everyone's gonna be a little healthier, great. But what if it's the place that manufactures flooring for all parts of the United States of a certain type of flooring and workers can't afford to go there anymore for work. The only thing they'll be able to do is increase 0:07:14 - 0:07:37 pay and then that has to get transferred to the consumer. And that means that far fewer consumers can afford the product. And certain, in fact, many products, many products have a threshold of volume that they have to stay above to be profitable. Meaning you're not gonna have a whole flooring factory 0:07:37 - 0:00:00 just to continue this example, if you're only cranking out a couple of cartons a week, you can't make that work, it can't be profitable. And so if you have reduced production because there's reduced demand because fewer people can afford it. You have to go out of business and then what do people do? 0:00:00 - 0:08:20 So you see the offerings and the supply reduce and you're going to see that across the board, you're gonna see grocery stores that have a whole aisle of a certain product. All of a sudden have two versions of it or slowly have two versions of it. And what used to take four aisles will now take one aisle 0:08:20 - 0:08:38 when you go to a store that has clothing and it used to be chock full of clothes. And then there was like a huge pile of clothes on. Clearance can be fewer clothes on clearance and much more space between the products because they can't fill the whole store. And when they build new stores, if they build 0:08:38 - 0:09:06 new stores, they're gonna be smaller or they'll shrink the store and remodel it and rent out the other side because they can't fill the floor space. So um yeah, what happens? This is the topic of another video, but I don't think I specifically mentioned this one. What happens when they create ways of 0:09:05 - 0:09:32 unequally increasing the cost of travel. And in that video, I know I talked about electric cars versus uh internal combustion combustion cars. However, what about things like if they applied the crazy way they do property taxes to travel. So people who have more pay more, they kind of already do because 0:09:31 - 0:09:53 you have to have more money to have a gas guzzler or have way less money and you have an older vehicle, a really old vehicle, Chuck's Gas because there's a fuel tax per, per gallon right now. But what if, what if they do something where they have grad like your electric utility probably does where they 0:09:52 - 0:10:11 have multiple rates, depending on how much you consume and the highest consumers pay more per unit than the lower consumers. So right now the tax is a fuel tax. It's per gallon. But what if they had something where they were measuring it by mile you drive and the first five miles you drive is a really 0:10:11 - 0:10:34 low rate or free and if you drive a lot of miles, you pay a really high rate. So it's this graduated rate or what if they charge you based on your income, not on how much you drive. And so now there's even more incentive for people to make less money. So these are all examples and we could go on for 0:10:34 - 0:10:55 a very long time. But let's make this a shorter video of how the lifestyle that you take for granted as, as a person in a wealthy nation, it's ending and you will see it decay before your eyes. And how is that going to change things? Well, we talk about that a lot in other videos, like having multiple 0:10:55 - 0:11:06 families in one house. But you're going to see these things change, the changes are already happening and they're not temporary, they're just going to get worse.